📦 BestHome Appliances — Demand Forecasting & Aggregate Planning

IE315000 Supply Chain Management  |  Ch.7 Forecasting · Ch.8 Aggregate Planning

📋 Problem Overview

BestHome Appliances Co. is a mid-size manufacturer of home appliances with 3 years of quarterly sales history (12 periods). Your task:
Step 1 — Forecast Year-4 demand (4 quarters) using Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Holt's model, then combine them into a weighted forecast.
Step 2 — Plan production for Year 4 by solving an Aggregate Planning LP that minimises total workforce, inventory, and backlog costs.

Historical Demand (units)

# Period Year Demand

Aggregate Planning Parameters

Parameter Value

⚙️ Model Parameters

Moving Average
Exponential Smoothing
Holt's Model
Combined Weights (adjustable)
Method Raw Weight %
Moving Avg — —
Exp. Smooth — —
Holt's — —
Deseasonal — —

Forecast Chart

Historical Moving Avg Exp. Smooth Holt's Deseasonal Combined Actual Y4

Forecast Error Metrics (in-sample, Y1–Y3)

Method MAD MSE MAPE Bias n

Year-4 Forecast (out-of-sample)

Method Y4-Q1 Y4-Q2 Y4-Q3 Y4-Q4

🏭 Your Hiring Plan

Enter how many workers to hire or lay off each quarter — integers only, max 50 per quarter. Regular production = workers × 150 units. No overtime allowed. Any shortfall becomes backlog carried to the next quarter; any surplus goes to inventory. Costs are evaluated against actual Y4 demand after submission.

Period Hire ↑ Lay Off ↓ Workers Reg Production
Y4-Q1 — —
Y4-Q2 — —
Y4-Q3 — —
Y4-Q4 — —

🏆 Rankings

Rank Name Student ID Total Cost Date
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